The butterfly effect

“If it’s winter, it should be cold, right? Mrs Manager, this is the eternal law of nature!” argued the boiler stoker in the classic Polish film Miś (Teddy Bear). However, you don’t have to be a particularly avid observer to have noticed that lately in our latitude it no longer has to be cold in winter and the climate has become less predictable. On a number of recent occasions there have been White Easters that have followed Christmases when the snow had stubbornly refused to fall. And if this happens again this year, the two holidays could even become less distinct, when Easter aptly falls on April Fools’ Day.

It’s still too early to make any confident weather forecasts for Easter, since long term forecasts are particularly susceptible to their initial conditions. Even to the extent that the Easter weather could be determined by the number of fireworks on New Year’s Eve – or even by just one of the fireworks. However, there is one sure thing that can be said about this year’s Easter – we will certainly not be shopping more by that time. Trading bans are nothing new – retail on bank holidays has been prohibited in Poland for over a decade. But the pronouncement has now been made that there will be even fewer days for shopping. To what extent? We cover this in the article ’Sunday, bloody Sunday’. Lauric Leclerc, the deputy chief executive of BNP Paribas Real Estate, also maps out a new future for his company on these pages. He tells us about his growth plans and forecasts for the market in the article entitled ‘Stability in a changing world’. The future, however we may want it to turn out, is always best faced with a furry friend at your side, since, as George Orwell once put it: ‘Four legs good’ – which by coincidence is also the title of our piece on the trend for bringing dogs to the office. There are also those who’ll tell you not to think too much about the future, because, well... que sera, sera. However, real estate investors are certainly not among them, as they are presently ‘In an acquisitive mood’.