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Savills sees enthusiasm and caution

Eurobuild CEE 28 December 2018
Savills sees enthusiasm and caution
Tomasz Buras, the managing director of Savills Poland

POLAND The year saw a growing appetite of investors for industrial assets, a supply gap on the Warsaw office market and Poland rising in global ratings. Now according to Savills, 2019 will see further supply growth and record-high occupier demand for warehouse and industrial space.

The Warsaw office market was dominated by a large number of new projects between the ONZ and Daszyńskiego roundabouts, but many of these buildings will not be coming onto the market until 2020. Over 2018 a ban on Sunday retail trade took effect and the country rose in the FTSE Russell index. Poland is the first country in almost a decade to have risen on this index.

Poland is seeing a gradual increase in supply of purpose-built student accommodation, as well as private rented housing and specialist homes for the elderly, which are increasingly becoming sought-after investment products. The next two years will also be a moment of truth for the serviced offices and co-working space that has come to Poland and could well change the market. With further technological advancements underway, smart property solutions will become the norm.

“This year’s transaction volume is likely to hit an all-time high driven by robust investment activity on the commercial real estate market. Polish properties are rising up in the estimation of investors, which in 2018 pushed office yields down to below 5 pct, the lowest on record. Despite a positive outlook for the next twelve months and investor attempts to avoid a self-fulfilling prophecy, next year will probably see the first signs of increased caution, which will lead to a focus on portfolio diversification with investors increasingly targeting industrial and alternative assets,” says Tomasz Buras, the managing director of Savills Poland.

The investment volume is likely to come in at nearly EUR 6.5 bln, which would be an all-time high of the Polish commercial real estate market. According to preliminary data, app. 750,000 sqm of office space was delivered to the market in 2018, bringing Poland’s office stock to 10.4 mln sqm. Poland’s retail stock now stands at almost 12 mln sqm following the completion of around 350,000 sqm of retail space in 2018. The warehouse sector has also seen more than 2 mln sqm completed over the past twelve months, bringing the country’s total stock to 15.5 mln sqm.

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