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Retail consumption grows across the EU

Rafał Ostrowski 25 July 2019

Rafał Ostrowski


+48 22 356 25 11

Rafał Ostrowski has over 17 years’ experience as a journalist. Before joining ‘Eurobuild CEE’ five years ago, he wrote for Wydawnictwo Murator and Shopping Centre Magazine, as well as for retailnet.pl. He has also written for many newspapers and magazines as a freelancer and prepared photo-reportages. Rafał graduated from the University of Warsaw in philosophy. He also completed postgraduate studies in text editing. For ‘Eurobuild CEE’ he covers most real estate sectors, including logistics, construction, office, residential and retail. He is also in charge of the film direction for Eurobuild TV.

EUROPE Retail turnover is to increase by 2 pct in nominal terms in the 27 countries of the European Union this year, forecasts GFK. The largest increases are forecast in Romania and Lithuania.

“The countries of Central and Eastern Europe, whose increasing affluence has been intensifying consumption, will be the growth drivers. Italy should emerge from the negative trend and achieve an increase of 1.1 pct. In Germany consumption will fall by 0.2 pct from the already low level of 1 pct. In Romania it will increase by 7 pct and in Ukraine by as much as 11.1 pct,” predicts Przemysław Dwojak, the senior director of GfK.

An increase of 3.9 pct is forecast in Poland. In 2018, the proportion of retail expenditure in private consumption fell by 0.4 pct to 30.5 pct across the 28 EU countries. In Poland of the figure was 35.3 pct, Germany 26 pct, Hungary 50 pct and in Ukraine 79.3 pct.

“These differences clearly illustrate the level of development, wealth, consumption needs and habits,” explains Przemysław Dwojak.

According to GFK, the inflation rate in the EU is set to decline. “The ongoing trade disputes with the US and the weakening of the European economy at the beginning of 2019 have cooled the mood of economists. As a result, a lower inflation rate is expected for the European Union in 2019. Its value will amount to 1.6 pct,” says the analyst.

The purchasing power of the average EU citizen in 2018 increased by 3 pct compared to the previous year. The largest increase was recorded by Latvia – by as much as 10.3 pct. The average wealth of a Polish citizen increased by 7.7 pct.

“It is worth noting that in the case of Poland there are large regional differences. A resident of the poorest district around Przysucha has a purchasing power of EUR 4,300 per year, whereas a resident of Warsaw has EUR 13,500. New EU countries have been making up the gap with the European average, but there are still significant differences in wealth between the eastern and western parts of Europe. The wealthiest areas of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary are still less prosperous than the poorest areas in the UK, Germany or France,” adds Przemysław Dwojak.

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